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Hike/Cut Oil Hold Stagflation Recession 🦢 Black Swan

1D 1W 1M All

⚡ AI FORECAST & SCENARIOS

🦢 BLACK SWAN RISKS

AI FORECAST — COMPONENT BREAKDOWN

Every update runs a structured 5-layer pipeline. Each layer builds on the previous. FRED data older than 65 days is excluded — shown as N/A with last known value.
① Base forecast — AI searches live web + analyzes 50+ market indicators, FRED macro data (CPI, PCE, unemployment), and 48h news feed. Outputs raw Hold/Hike/Cut probabilities with causal chain reasoning.
② Devil's Advocate — a second independent AI pass at temperature=0 (deterministic). Contrarian lens: checks historical Fed base rates, data vs narrative divergence, weakest assumptions, Polymarket/CME consensus. Returns calibrated probability adjustments. Runs with 3 retries — always present.
③ Adjusted Base — DA-corrected probabilities. Also computes per-direction fragility multipliers: applied only if DA concern is mechanistically linked to a specific Black Swan. Multiplier >1.2 requires empirical evidence (historical precedent + mechanism + magnitude) — narrative alone caps at ×1.1.
④ Black Swan — two independent tail-risk scenarios (hawkish shock / dovish shock). Each shows P(shock occurs) × conditional outcome. Fragility multiplier applied per-direction independently — a geopolitical DA argument does not inflate an unrelated health-shock scenario.
⑤ Weighted Final — Adjusted Base × P(no shock) + Hawkish BS × hawk-adjusted weight + Dovish BS × dove-adjusted weight. Normalised to 100%. This is the single number to read first.

COMBINED FORECAST TREND %

Hold (combined) Hike (combined) Cut (combined)