Complete guide — how data is collected, analyzed, and what every number means
WHO IS THIS FOR
Fed decisions affect your money every 6–8 weeks.
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You have a mortgage or plan to buy a home
The Fed rate is the floor for all mortgage rates. A 25bp cut can reduce your monthly payment by hundreds of dollars. This tool tracks the probability of that happening before the meeting — not after.
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You have savings or a deposit
When the Fed cuts rates, banks lower deposit yields within weeks. Knowing it's coming means you can lock in a high rate before it disappears — not after the announcement when it's already too late.
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You trade independently — equities, bonds, commodities, or crypto
$SPY, $TLT, Brent, gold, DXY — all reprice on Fed expectations, not just the decision itself. The market moves on probability shifts. This tool quantifies those shifts daily, including tail risk that consensus pricing ignores.
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You read WSJ and Bloomberg but want one synthesis instead of ten articles
50+ sources — FRED, CME FedWatch, Polymarket, oil, treasuries, Fed officials' statements — distilled into one number with a confidence score. No opinion, no narrative agenda. Just: what does the data say the Fed will do next.